Search Results for “acceptable risk” – Collected book of scientific-technical articles

7.1.2020 Studying the motion of a launch vehicle and observed space debris objects during launch preparation

Вацлав Самусевич — Wed, 13 Sep 2023 06:27:07 +0000

7. Mechanics of a satellite cluster. Methods for estimating the probability of their maximal approach in flight

Authors:

Holubek O. V.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2020, (1); 76-84

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2020.01.076

Language: Russian

Annotation: The mathematic modeling was performed of the flight of light-class three-stage launch vehicle injecting a payload into sun-synchronous orbit of 700 km altitude and a cluster of observed space debris objects in the conditions of dynamically changing cataloged space situation. It is shown that as the launch moment becomes closer, the cataloged space situation is ascertained, which leads to the constant change of the quantity of hazardous space debris objects observed in the vicinity of launch vehicle trajectory and to the change of the parameters of their approach to the launch vehicle: minimal relative distance, relative velocity, rendezvous angle and launch moment for which hazardous approach is revealed. The hazardous approaches for the launch vehicle trajectory under consideration are more often observed with the relative velocities of more than 8 km/s and rendezvous angles less than 90 deg and their variations within the launch window do not exceed 1.2 m/s and 0.035 deg respectively. In this case, the histograms of distribution of relative distance, relative velocity, and rendezvous angle from catalog to catalog vary insignificantly. The distribution of hazardous approaches in launch time within launch window is not uniform, the regions are observed with low quantity of hazardous approaches and with high quantity. The hazard of launch vehicle collision with observed space debris objects in a launch is confirmed. In all, in the launch day time window under consideration, more than ten hazardous approaches are revealed, for two of them the approach to minimal distance of less than 1 km is predicted. This testifies to the necessity of taking measures to increase safety of launch vehicle flight through observed space debris cluster. In order to increase Ukrainian launch vehicles miss ion safety in the conditions of near space pollution, it is proposed to create the system of pre -flight space analysis, whose tasks are periodic analysis of space situation not less than once in a day, revealing of hazardous approaches, determination of their parameters, and preparation of data to make decision on launch time.

Key words: method of launch time planning, safety of flight through space debris cluster

Bibliography:

1. ESA Operations. For the first time ever, ESA has performed a ‘collision avoidance manoeuvre’ to protect one of its satellites from colliding with a ‘mega constellation’. Electronic resource. – Access mode: https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status/ 1168533241873260544 (Access date 12.09.2019).

2. Klinkrad H. Space Debris – Models and Risk Analysis. Chichester, UK: Praxis Publishing Ltd, 2006. 430 p.

3. Johnson N. L. Orbital Debris: The Growing Threat to Space Operations / Advances in the Astronautical Sciences. 2010. Vol. 137. P. 3-11.

4. Orbital Debris. A Technical Assessment. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1995. 210 p.

5. Bandyopadhyay P., Sharma R.K., Adimurthy V. Space debris proximity analysis in powered and orbital phases during satellite launch / Advances in Space Research. 2004. Vol. 34. P. 1125-1129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2003.10.043

6. Adimurthy V., Ganeshan A. S. Space debris mitigation measures in India / Acta Astronautica. 2005. Vol. 58. P. 168-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2005.09.002

7. Schultz E. D., Schultz E. D., Wilde P. D. Mitigation of Collision Hazard for the International Space Station from Globally Launched Objects / 6th IAASS Conference Safety is Not an Option. 21-23 May 2013. Montreal, Canada. Electronic resource. Access mode: https://iaassconference2013.-space-safety.org/ wp-content/uploads/sites/-19/2013/06/ 1420_Shultz.pdf (Access date 12.09.2019).

8. Brevdik G. D., Strub J. E. Determination of acceptable launch windows for satellite collision avoidance / AAS/AIAA Astrodyna-mics Conference. 19-21 August 1991 Pt1. Durango USA. Astrodynamics. P. 345-356.

9. Hejduk M. D., Plakalovic D., New-man L. K., Ollivierre J. C., Hametz M. E., Beaver B. A., Thompson R. C. Trajectory Error and Covariance Realism for Launch Cola Operations / Advances in the Astronautical Sciences. 2013. Vol. 148. P. 2371-2390.

10. Hejduk M. D., Plakalovic D., New-man L. K., Ollivierre J. C., Hametz M. E., Beaver B. A., Thompson R. C. Recommended Risk Assessment Techniques and Thresholds for Launch Cola Operations / Advances in the Astronautical Sciences. 2014. Vol. 150. P. 3061-3080.

11. Handschuh D. A., Wang C., Vidal B. Operational Feedback on Four Years of Collision Risk Avoidance at Launch in Europe / 7th IAASS Conference Space Safety is No Accident, 20-22 October 2014. Fredrichschafen, Germany. P. 355-363. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15982-9_42

12. Ihdalov I. М., Kuchma L. D., Poliakov N. V., Sheptun Yu. D. Dinamicheskoe proektirovanie raket. Zadachi dinamiki raket i ikh kosmicheskikh stupenei: mohografiia / pod red. akad. S. N. Koniukhova. Dnepropetrovsk, 2010. 264 s.

13. NIMA TR 8350.2. Department of Defense world geodetic system 1984: Its definition and relationships with local geodetic systems. 3-d ed. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, 2000. 174 p.

14. NGA EGM2008 – WGS 84 version. Electronic resource. Access mode to page: http://earth-info.nga.mil/GandG/ wgs84/gravitymod/egm2008/ gm08_wgs84.html. (Access date 12.09.2019).

15. Holubek А. V. Sblizheniie rakety-nositelia s katalogizirovannymi kosmicheskimi ob’ektami v processe vyvedeniia na orbity s nizkim nakloneniem / Izvestiia vysshikh uchebnykh zavadenii. Mashinostroenie. 2018. №2 (695). S. 86-98.

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9.1.2023 Methodology for selecting design parameters of solid-propellant sustainer engines. Mathematical support and software

manager — Fri, 12 May 2023 16:11:14 +0000

9. Methodology for selecting design parameters of solid-propellant sustainer engines. Mathematical support and software

Authors:

Yenotov V. H., Kushnir B. I., Pustovharova O. V., Chubarov A. M.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2023 (1); 77-87

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2023.01.077

Language: Ukrainian

Annotation: Substantiation of the research tools has been performed as a part of methodology development for the air and missile defense system. The problem under consideration is very complex due to the multifactorial nature of the research object, its qualitative variety and manifold structure, incomplete definition of the problem statement. Furthermore, the ability of modern technologies to produce different arms systems, which are capable of carrying out same class tasks, considerably increases the risk of making not the best decisions. Based on this, as well as taking into account the sharp increase in the cost of weaponry, the considered problem is classified as an optimization one that should be solved through the theory of operations research. In this theory, such task is viewed as a mathematical problem, and mathematical simulation is the basic method of research. The main types of mathematical models, their areas of application have been considered as a part of the analysis. The classification of mathematical models has been indicated according to the scale of reproduced operations, purpose, and goal orientation. Quantitative and qualitative correlation of forces has been accepted as the efficiency criterion, which determines a goal orientation of the model. The problems related to this have been shown. In particular, searching for the compromise between simplicity of the mathematical model and its adequacy to the research object is among these problems. Two of the basic approaches to principles of the military operation model construction and its assessment have been considered. The first is implemented through modeling of the combat operations. The second approach is based on the assumption that different armament types can be compared based on their contribution to the outcome of the operation, and on the possibility to assign «a weighting coefficient» named as a combat potential to each of these types. The modern level of problem solving related to this method has been shown. The reasonability of its application in the considered task, including the definition of forces correlation of the opposing parties, has been substantiated. The basic regulations of the construction concept of the required mathematical model and tools for its research have been formulated based on the analysis results: the assigned problem should be solved by analytical methods through the theory of operations research; the analytical model is the most acceptable conception of the analyzed level of the military operation; the synthesis of the model should be based on the idea of a combat potential. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the known approach to the definition of forces correlation, which uses the combat potential method, has a number of essential limitations, including the methodological ones. Therefore, within the bounds of further research, this approach requires the development both in terms of improving the reliability of the single assessment and in terms of giving the system qualities to the synthesized mathematical model.

Key words: multifunctional system, mathematical model, military unit, combat potential, correlation of forces, defensive sufficiency

Bibliography:

1. Pavlyuk Yu. S. Ballisticheskoe proektirovanie raket: ucheb.-metod, posobie dlya vuzov. UDK623.451.8. Izd-vo ChGTU, Chelyabinsk, 1996. 92 s.
2. Nikolaev Yu. M., Solomonov Yu. S. Inzhenernoe proektirovanie upravlyaemykh ballisticheskikh raket s RDTT. M., 1979. 240 s.
3. Enotov V. G., Kirichenko A. S., Pustovgarova Ye. V. Osobennosti rascheta i vybora raskhodnoy diagrammy dvukhrezhimnykh marshevykh RDTT: ucheb.-metod. posobie. Pod red. akadem. A. V. Degtyreva. Dnepr, 2019. 68 s.
4. Enotov V. G., Kushnir B. I., Pustovgarova Ye. V. Metodika-programma proektnoy otsenki characteristic marshevykh dvigateley na tverdom toplive s korpusami iz vysokoprochnykh metallicheskikh materialov, statsionarnymi soplami i postanovka ee na avtomatizirovanniy raschet: ucheb.-metod. posobie. Vtoroe izd., pererabot. i dop. Pod red. A. S. Kirichenko. Dnep, 2019. 91 s.
5. Enotov V. G., Kirichenko A. S., Kushnir B. I., Pustovgarova Ye. V. Metodika proektnoy otsenki characteristic marshevykh dvigatelnykh ustanovok na tverdom toplive s povorotnymi upravlyayuschimi soplami, plastikovymi tselnomotannymi korpusamy i postanovka ee na avtomatizirovanniy raschet: ucheb.-metod. posobie. Vtoroe izd., pererabot. i dop. Pod red. akadem. A. V. Degtyareva. Dnepr. 2019. 149 s.
6. Alemasov V. Ye., Dregalin A. F., Tishin A. P. Teoriya raketnykh dvigateley. M., 1980. 55 s.
7. Raschetnye materialy dlya podgotovki i vydachi iskhodnykh dannykh na razrabotku uzlov marshevykh dvigatelnykh ustanovok na tverdom toplive. Raschet ID metodom avtomatizirovannogo proektirovaniya operativno-takticheskikh raket: inzhenern. zapiska 553-376 IZ. GP «KB «Yuzhnoye». Dnepropetrovsk, 2017. 30 s.
8. Metodika avtomatizirovannogo proektirovaniya operativno-takticheskikh raket: nauch.-tekhn. Otchet 03-453/32 NTO. GP «KB «Yuzhnoye». Dnepropetrovsk, 2010. 127 s.

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2.1.2023 How Yuzhnoye develops models for flight safety index evaluation for the case of a rocket failure during the flight

manager — Fri, 12 May 2023 16:10:21 +0000

2. How Yuzhnoye develops models for flight safety index evaluation for the case of a rocket failure during the flight

Authors:

Hladkyi E. H., Perlyk V. I.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2023 (1); 14-30

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2023.01.014

Language: Ukrainian

Annotation: Safety of the up-to-date rocket and space complexes remains a topical problem for the developers of rocket and space technology. The integral component of this problem along with the safety of operations during launch vehicle ground pre-launch processing is organization of flight safety. The basic task of this rocket and space complexes safety component is to prevent or minimize serious consequences in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight leg, after all such accidents can cause damage to the population and facilities (including personnel and facilities of the ground complex), located along the flight paths. It is shown that the flight safety assurance of the launch vehicle is based on the experience of combat missile systems. Flight safety during the launch vehicle launches is provided by laying flight paths through sparsely populated (unpopulated) territories and using special onboard flight safety systems. This system limits the size of impact zones of emergency launch vehicle and its debris by emergency engine shutdown. Recently flight safety process is organized based on the acceptable risk concept. It is based on a risk assessment for the ground-based facilities and people, and it should not exceed the established standards. Such approach requires development and upgrading of the mathematical models of risk assessment in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight phase. Formation of the risk-oriented approach to flight safety in Yuzhnoye SDO is shown. Key moment in this process is to develop the separate structural unit, which started working on rocket and space complexes flight safety assurance and analysis. The basic model for assessing the risks of damage to facilities and people is analyzed, using the maximum impact zone of an emergency launch vehicle, which is realized in case of loss of control and flight safety system activation. The main directions of the basic model improvement are shown, which led to the development of a number of new original models of flight safety assessment in the Yuzhnoye SDO. First of all, the developed models take into account the flight safety system specifics, which are used to equip the launch vehicles, developed by Yuzhnoye SDO: criteria of activation, blocking of the engine emergency shutdown in the initial flight phase and Fe functional. Such models allow to take into account the different nature of emergency situations in the launch vehicle flight phase and ways of their representation, representation of the damage areas of facilities in the form of convex polygons, possible fragmentation of the emergency launch vehicle at the free- fall leg etc. The developed models have found wide application in the practice of assessing flight safety indicators in the Yuzhnoye SDO projects.

Key words: launch vehicle, acceptable risk, launch vehicle failure in the flight phase, flight safety system, emergency launch vehicle impact zone, risk of damage to facilities, collection risk

Bibliography:

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2. Gladkiy E.G. Opredelenie riska dlya obiektov startovogo kompleksa s uchetom ih obvalovki v cluchae avarii rakety-nositelya na nachalnom uchastke poleta. Tehnicheskaya mehanika. Dnepropetrovsk: ITM NAN i GKA Ukrainy, 2020. №1. S. 31–41.
3. Gladkiy E.G. Otsenka riska porazheniya lineynogo obiekta v cluchae avarii rakety-nositelya na etape poleta. Kosmichna nauka i tehnologia. Kiev: GAO, 2019. T. 25. № 4. S. 22–28.
4. Gladkiy E.G. Protsedura otsenki poletnoy bezopasnosti raket-nositeley, ispolzuyuschaya geometricheskoe predstavlenie zony porazheniya obiekta v vide mnogougolnika. Kosmicheskaya tehnika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: Sb. nauch. tr. Dnepropetrovsk: GPKBU, 2015. Vyp. 3. S. 50–56.
5. Gladkiy E.G., Kryukov A.V. Opredelenie veroyatnosti padenia avariynoy rakety-nositelya na ploschadnye obiekty, raspolozhennye bdol trassy vyvedennia. Kosmicheskaya tehnika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: Sb. nauch. tr. Dnepropetrovsk: GPKBU, 2008. Vyp. 1. S. 81−90.
6. Gladkiy E.G., Perlik V.I. Vybor interval vremeni blokirovki avriynogo vykluchenniya dvigatelya na nachalnom uchastke poleta pervoy stupeni. Kosmicheskaya tehnika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: Sb. nauch. tr. Dnepropetrovsk: GPKBU, 2011. Vyp. 2. S. 266–280.
7. Gladkiy E.G., Perlik V.I. Matematicheskie modeli otsenki riska dlya nazemnyh obiektov pri puskah raket-nositeley. Kosmicheskaya tehnika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: Sb. nauch. tr. Dnepropetrovsk: GPKBU, 2010. Vyp. 2. S. 3–19.
8. Gladkiy E.G., Perlik V.I. Model otsenki urovnya bezopasnosti raketno-kosmicheskyh system. Kosmicheskaya tehnika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: Sb. nauch. tr. Dnepropetrovsk: GPKBU. 2006. Vyp. 1−2. S. 45–57.
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1.1.2023 On the development of a methodology for building air and missile defense systems. Explanation of the investigation mechanism

manager — Thu, 11 May 2023 15:25:30 +0000

1. On the development of a methodology for building air and missile defense systems. Explanation of the investigation mechanism

Authors:

Perkov V. M., Herasimov A. P., Degtyarev O. V.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2023 (1); 3-13

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2023.01.003

Language: Ukrainian

Key words: multifunctional system, mathematical model, military unit, combat potential, correlation of forces, defensive sufficiency

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