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5.1.2024 Assessment of risk of toxic damage to people in case of a launch vehicle accident at flight

Дмитрий Макренко — Thu, 13 Jun 2024 06:00:42 +0000

5. Assessment of risk of toxic damage to people in case of a launch vehicle accident at flight

Authors:

Hladkyi E. H., Sheiko А. F.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2024, (1); 40-50

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2024.01.040

Language: English

Annotation: Despite stringent environmental requirements, modern launch vehicles/integrated launch vehicles (LV/ILV) burn toxic propellants such as NTO and UDMH. Typically, such propellants are used in the LV/ILV upper stages, where a small amount of propellant is contained; however, some LV/ILV still use such fuel in all sustainer propulsion stages. For launch vehicles containing toxic rocket propellants, flight accidents may result in the failed launch vehicle falling to the Earth’s surface, forming large zones of chemical damage to people (the zones may exceed blast and fire zones). This is typical for accidents occurring in the first stage flight segment, when an intact launch vehicle or its components (usually individual stages) with rocket propellants will reach the Earth’s surface. An explosion and fire following such an impact will most likely lead to a massive release of toxicant and contamination of the surface air. An accident during the flight segment of the LV/ILV first stage with toxic rocket propellants, equipped with a flight termination system that implements emergency engine shutdown in case of detection of an emergency situation, has been considered. To assess the risk of toxic damage to a person located at a certain point, it is necessary to mathematically describe the zone within which a potential impact of the failed LV/ILV will entail toxic damage to the person (the so-called zone of dangerous impact of the failed LV/ILV). The complexity of this lies in the need to take into account the characteristics of the atmosphere, primarily the wind. Using the zone of toxic damage to people during the fall of the failed launch vehicle, which is proposed to be represented by a combination of two figures: a semicircle and a half-ellipse, the corresponding zone of dangerous impact of the failed LV/ILV is constructed. Taking into account the difficulties of writing the analytical expressions for these figures during the transition to the launch coordinate system and further integration when identifying the risk, in practical calculations we propose to approximate the zone of dangerous impact of the failed LV/ILV using a polygon. This allows using a known procedure to identify risks. A generalization of the developed model for identifying the risk of toxic damage to people involves taking into account various types of critical failures that can lead to the fall of the failed LV/ILV, and blocking emergency engine shutdown during the initial flight phase. A zone dangerous for people was constructed using the proposed model for the case of the failure of the Dnepr launch vehicle, where the risks of toxic damage exceed the permissible level (10–6). The resulting danger zone significantly exceeds the danger zone caused by the damaging effect of the blast wave. Directions for further improvement of the model are shown, related to taking into account the real distribution of the toxicant in the atmosphere and a person’s exposure to a certain toxic dose.

Key words: launch vehicle, critical failure, flight accident, zone of toxic damage to people, zone of dangerous impact of the failed launch vehicle, risk of toxic damage to people.

Bibliography:

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Hladkiy E. H., Perlik V. I. Vybor interval vremeni blokirovki avariynogo vyklucheniya dvigatelya na nachalnom uchastke poleta pervoy stupeni. Kosmicheskaya technika. Raketnoe vooruzhenie: sb. nauch.-tech. st. Dnepropetrovsk: GP «KB «Yuzhnoye», 2011. Vyp. 2. s. 266 – 280. [Hladkyi E., Perlik V. Selection of time interval for blocking of emergency engine cut off in the initial flight leg of first stage. Space Technology. Missile Weapons: Digest of Scientific Technical Papers. Dnipro: Yuzhnoye SDO, 2011. Issue 2. Р. 266 – 280. (in Russian)].
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2.1.2023 How Yuzhnoye develops models for flight safety index evaluation for the case of a rocket failure during the flight

manager — Fri, 12 May 2023 16:10:21 +0000

2. How Yuzhnoye develops models for flight safety index evaluation for the case of a rocket failure during the flight

Authors:

Hladkyi E. H., Perlyk V. I.

Organization:

Yangel Yuzhnoye State Design Office, Dnipro, Ukraine

Page: Kosm. teh. Raket. vooruž. 2023 (1); 14-30

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33136/stma2023.01.014

Language: Ukrainian

Annotation: Safety of the up-to-date rocket and space complexes remains a topical problem for the developers of rocket and space technology. The integral component of this problem along with the safety of operations during launch vehicle ground pre-launch processing is organization of flight safety. The basic task of this rocket and space complexes safety component is to prevent or minimize serious consequences in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight leg, after all such accidents can cause damage to the population and facilities (including personnel and facilities of the ground complex), located along the flight paths. It is shown that the flight safety assurance of the launch vehicle is based on the experience of combat missile systems. Flight safety during the launch vehicle launches is provided by laying flight paths through sparsely populated (unpopulated) territories and using special onboard flight safety systems. This system limits the size of impact zones of emergency launch vehicle and its debris by emergency engine shutdown. Recently flight safety process is organized based on the acceptable risk concept. It is based on a risk assessment for the ground-based facilities and people, and it should not exceed the established standards. Such approach requires development and upgrading of the mathematical models of risk assessment in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight phase. Formation of the risk-oriented approach to flight safety in Yuzhnoye SDO is shown. Key moment in this process is to develop the separate structural unit, which started working on rocket and space complexes flight safety assurance and analysis. The basic model for assessing the risks of damage to facilities and people is analyzed, using the maximum impact zone of an emergency launch vehicle, which is realized in case of loss of control and flight safety system activation. The main directions of the basic model improvement are shown, which led to the development of a number of new original models of flight safety assessment in the Yuzhnoye SDO. First of all, the developed models take into account the flight safety system specifics, which are used to equip the launch vehicles, developed by Yuzhnoye SDO: criteria of activation, blocking of the engine emergency shutdown in the initial flight phase and Fe functional. Such models allow to take into account the different nature of emergency situations in the launch vehicle flight phase and ways of their representation, representation of the damage areas of facilities in the form of convex polygons, possible fragmentation of the emergency launch vehicle at the free- fall leg etc. The developed models have found wide application in the practice of assessing flight safety indicators in the Yuzhnoye SDO projects.

Key words: launch vehicle, acceptable risk, launch vehicle failure in the flight phase, flight safety system, emergency launch vehicle impact zone, risk of damage to facilities, collection risk

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